Why digital trust will be the real competitive edge next year.
2026 will be no mercy for the undecided.
According to Forrester, organizations that haven’t established a solid digital trust infrastructure will literally be paying the price. Why? Identity isn’t just about security. It’s about resilience, experience, and compliance. And in 2026, all these factors will determine who rises to the top… and who runs out of budget.
- Prediction #1: 25% of AI spending will be postponed until 2027 due to a lack of confidence and measurable returns.
- Prediction #2: Spending on quantum security will exceed 5% of the IT budget.
- Prediction #3: VPNs will continue to quietly fade away… as contextual and frictionless access takes over.
1. AI is cooling off: trust kills hype
“25% of enterprise AI investments will be delayed or put on hold in 2026 due to a lack of measurable ROI and trust in AI outputs.”
Organizations are scaling back their AI investments not because of a lack of interest, but because of a lack of purpose. What is the lesson here? That without a solid identity, traceability, and governance, no AI model will be trustworthy. Context-based access and the monitoring of risk signals will be more important than clever prompts.
2. More identity, less perimeter: security as the backbone
“Quantum readiness and identity-centric security will account for more than 5% of the total IT budget in highly regulated sectors.”
The forecast is clear: identity will be the star of cybersecurity spending. From regulated industries to fintech startups, securing access based on behavior, risk, and purpose will be the new standard. Trust will be built in… or it won’t be at all.
3. The VPN disconnects
“Traditional VPN usage will drop by 40% as more organizations adopt zero-trust architecture and context-based access.”
Zero Trust isn’t a trend—it’s an inevitable choice. Organizations that continue to rely on VPNs as their sole line of defense are like people securing their homes with rusty locks. Instead: passwordless access, continuous authentication, and contextual analysis. Welcome to the world without a perimeter.
Without ethics, there is no scalability
Forrester doesn't say it outright, but it hints at it between the lines: automation, AI, and hybrid architectures will only be sustainable if they are designed with principles in mind. 2026 will be the year when the purpose-driven identity ceases to be a nice-to-have… and becomes an operational requirement.
What about your 2026?
Today's decisions are tomorrow's audits.
Today’s orphaned accounts are next year’s fraud headlines.
Identity, if not managed ethically, becomes a technical liability… or a reputational crisis. What we protect defines us. But so does what we leave unprotected.
Let's talk today. Because 2026 won't wait.
SOURCE: Forrester Predictions 2026
